AuthorThe “FOCUS ON AG” column is sent out weekly via e-mail to all interested parties. The column features timely information on farm management, marketing, farm programs, crop insurance, crop and livestock production, and other timely topics. Selected copies of the “FOCUS ON AG” column are also available on “The FARMER” magazine web site at: https://www.farmprogress.com/focus-ag Archives
June 2024
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As we head into 2023, many farm operations are coming off a fairly good profit year in 2022; however, some producers had much more modest profit levels last year. In all cases, all farm operators are facing much higher crop and livestock input expenses in 2023, as compared to 2020 or 2021 expense levels. During these changing farm financial times, it is good to plan ahead before meeting with an ag lender for renewal of a farm operating line of credit or for an annual review of the farm financial portfolio.
Following are some tips for farm operators to be more proactive, as they are preparing for an annual meeting with their ag lender …… • Prepare an up-to-date 2022 year-end farm balance sheet (as of 12-31-22 or 1-01-23) . Preparation of an accurate and up-to-date year-end balance sheet is critical to the loan renewal process for any farm operation. Updating the previous year’s balance sheet with current year-end numbers can help expediate the process. If the farm operation is a sole proprietorship, most ag lenders will also want personal asset and liability data included. If it is a partnership or family corporation, most ag lenders will also require per-sonal balance sheets from all partners. A good year-end balance sheet will include: List of accounts receivable as of 12-31-22, which includes whom the money is due from, the dollar amount, and the date it will be received. This includes deferred payments for grain sold in 2022. List of accounts payable as of 12-31-21, listing who the money is owed to, the dollar amount, and when payment will be due. List of 2023 prepaid expenses for both crops and livestock as of 12-31-22, which details the input, amount of the input, and the amount that was prepaid. This for items where payment has occurred. Grain and livestock inventory list as of 12-31-22. The grain inventory should include total bushels of each crop, bushels that are forward priced (date and price for each sale), and any sales plans for the remaining bushels. Livestock inventory should include the number, weight, and any sales information on market or feeder livestock. An updated list and estimated value of breeding livestock should be included as an intermediate asset rather than a current asset. CCC loans on 2022 grain that were taken prior to 1-01-23, listing the bushel amount, CCC loan rate, CCC interest rate, CCC loan maturity date, and sales plans for the CCC grain. Review the list of farm machinery and equipment, buildings and facilities, and other capital assets, removing any assets that have been sold or removed, and adding any assets that were purchased or acquired during 2022. Farm machinery is usually listed as an intermediate asset. Add any land or other long-term assets that were added in 2022 and adjust asset values as necessary (may want to review this with an ag lender). List of all other loans and creditors as of 12-31-22, listing the principal balance, interest rate, payment amount, and payment dates. Be sure to include short-term creditors for crop inputs, loans with family members, and CCC loans through FSA offices. • Prepare a 2022 year-end income and expense statement as of 12-31-22. The year-end income statement from the previous year should be based on actual sales of grain and livestock during 2022, which will likely include both some 2021 inventory that existed at the beginning of the year, as well as any 2022 grain or livestock that was sold during the year. The 2022 expenses would include any accounts payable from the beginning of the year balance sheet that were paid in 2022 and any 2023 prepaid expenses that were paid in 2022, in addition to the other 2022 crop and livestock expenses. A preliminary 2022 federal tax return is a good resource to prepare an income statement. • Prepare a budget-to-actual summary for the previous year (as of 12-31-22). Once the 2022 income and expense statement has been finalized, and accrual adjustments are made based on the year-end balance sheet, it always good to review the actual year-end financial analysis compared to the budgeted cash flow analysis that was prepared at the beginning of the year. Pay attention to the big differences that exist in crop and livestock income and the various expense items, as well as determine explanations for those differences. Analyze for any potential adjustments that are needed for 2023. • Prepare a preliminary 2023 budget and cash flow analysis. Preparing an accurate and complete budget and cash flow analysis for 2023 is a very important part of the loan renewal process. A high-quality cash flow analysis will likely include: A grain and livestock marketing plan that includes a list of the amount sold, the contracted price, and the date to be delivered, as well as plans for remaining unpriced grain and livestock inventories. Planned crop and livestock production for the year, including acres of various crops, anticipated production levels, and any current or planned sales of the 2023 production. A list of planned crop and livestock inputs for 2023, the contracted or planned price of the inputs, and when the expense will be incurred. A detailed list of rented farm land for 2023, which includes the name of the farm owner, acres rented, amount of rent (including flexible lease details), and dates when rent payments are due. Include income received for accounts receivable on the year-end balance sheet and account for the expenses of any accounts payable at the beginning of the year. Provide details of planned 2023 crop insurance coverage, such as updated APH yields, percentage coverage, enterprise versus optional units, ad the addi-tion of hail or wind insurance. (Your ag lender may be a good resource for these decisions.) Provide a copy of FSA farm program information listing the crop base acres and FSA program yield for each farm unit. Discuss the 2023 farm program choice with your ag lender. Include any planned changes or adjustments in the farming operation for 2023 in the cash flow analysis, including farm machinery purchases or sales, adding or selling land or other assets, and any other changes to the farm business, as well as any changes in personal assets or liabilities. It is best to include all partners and family members that are part of the farm operation in the renewal process with an ag lender, so that all key players are “on the same page” with financial decisions affecting the farm business. It is very important to be trustworthy and honest in preparing and sharing financial information with an ag lender to help assure confidence in the accuracy of the financial data. View an ag lender as an informal partner in a farm business, as a good ag lender can be a valuable resource in making management decisions. Farm operators should expect their ag lenders to be well prepared, trustworthy and honest in financial dealings. It is important to remember that most local ag lenders also face a lot of pressure in the process of renewing farm operating loans. They need to do their “due-diligence” to complete the necessary requirements in the loan renewal process. The loan renewal process and documentation that is prepared will likely be reviewed by senior management at a financial institution, as well as being subject to review and audits by Federal and State bank examiners. Most ag lenders are part of the local community and want to see farmers have financial success, which is in the best interest of both the farm business and the ag lending institution.
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The 2023 crop year will be the final year for the current Farm Bill, which is set to expire on September 30, 2023, unless there is an extension. A Farm Bill is one of the most comprehensive pieces of legislation that is passed by Congress. Passage of a new Farm Bill is very complex, with programs ranging from farm commodity programs to food and nutrition programs, from conservation programs to rural development programs, and several more. In many cases, finalizing a Farm Bill in Congress can be quite controversial, and not necessarily just by political party lines. The Farm Bill programs become quite geographical, with members of Congress wanting to protect the farm, food, conservation, and economic interests of their State or Congressional district.
Following are a few insights on some of the key provisions that are included in the current Farm Bill: Commodities The Commodity Title includes all commodity farm program payments, marketing assistance loans (MAL), and other crop subsidy payments. In the past two Farm Bills, crop producers have had the option to choose between the price-only “Price Loss Coverage” (PLC) and county yield revenue-based “Ag Risk Coverage” (ARC-CO) program, which has been an annual choice since the 2020 crop year. Some farm organizations would like to see increased crop reference prices and MAL loan rates, as well as to make some adjustments to the ARC-CO program payment formula. The “Dairy Margin Coverage” (DMC) program, which has proved to be quite beneficial for small to medium sized dairy herds (under 300 cows), is also included under this Title and was enhanced in the 2018 Fam Bill. Crop Insurance Most crop producers and ag lenders will highlight a sound working crop insurance program through the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) as the “centerpiece” for a solid risk management plan in a farm operation. Over 95 percent of the corn and soybean acres in the Upper Midwest are typically insured by some type of crop insurance coverage, which are subsidized at a rate of 60-65 percent by the federal government. The RMA also offers some insurance products the dairy and livestock producers. Some members of Congress are calling for some changes and modifications to the current programs under this Title, while most farm organizations are lobbying to keep the current program intact. Some livestock organizations would like to see enhancements to RMA programs for livestock production. Conservation The current Farm Bill set the maximum Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres at 27 million acres, with additional focus on the Grassland Reserve Program. The Farm Bill also set the maximum CRP rental rates at 90 percent (90%) of the average FSA “prevailing” rental rates for Continuous CRP contracts and at 85 percent (85%) for General CRP. There will likely be considerable support for expansion of the maximum CRP acres, as well as for increasing the maximum annual CRP rental rates to incentivize enrollment into the CRP program. The large 2022 “Inflation Reduction Act” contained several provisions that provided added funding for the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) and the Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP), which are part of the Conservation Title. Credit This Title sets parameters and provides funding for the FSA direct and guaranteed loan programs, which have become quite important to farm operators and ag lenders. The direct FSA farm ownership loans are especially important to provide beginning farmers low interest loans to purchase farmland. Recently, there have been greater efforts to reach underserved farmers and ranchers with the FSA loan programs. Nutrition The Nutrition Title, which includes the SNAP program (food stamps), the Women, Infants and Children (WIC) nutrition program, and school lunch program, will probably be debated more than any other Title during Farm Bill hearings in 2023. The Nutrition Title will likely account for 80-85 percent of annual federal spending allocated under the next Farm Bill. Several billion dollars were added to the Nutrition Title budget base as part of COVID relief legislation and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Some members of Congress would like to separate the Nutrition Title from the Farm Bill; however, ag policy experts have warned that funding for ag commodity programs could become much more difficult if SNAP and the other nutrition programs are removed from the Farm bill legislation. Other Farm Bill Titles There are seven other Titles in the current Farm Bill that authorize programs and funding that is administered by USDA. These Titles and programs include: Rural Development This Title reauthorizes funding for rural development loans to communities and businesses, as well as programs to assist local governments with everything from emergency service providers, fire protection, wastewater treatment, expansion of broadband service, and more. Trade Includes funding for important agricultural trade promotion programs, such as the Market Access Program (MAP) and the Foreign Market Development Program (FMDP). These trade related programs are important for opening new markets and maintaining existing markets for U.S. ag exports. Energy Provides funding for USDA programs that support the development of biofuels and renewable energy. There may be efforts to include other “green energy” programs in the Farm Bill. Forestry Creates programs and provides funding for USDA collaborative efforts to battle forest fires, as well as for research and development, insect and disease control, and timber management. Horticulture Provides USDA funding for farmers markets and other local food programs, as well as for the national organic certification program. The last Farm Bill legitimized industrial hemp as an agricultural commodity, thus making hemp eligible for crop insurance and other USDA programs. Research and Extension USDA funding for ag research, extension programs, and other food research and education programs through the nation’s Land Grant University system are provided under this Title. Miscellaneous This Title covers any other programs offered by USDA, such as the provision in the last Farm Bill to provide funding for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccine bank. Farm Bill “Baseline Funding” and Summary The amount of dollars that Congress allocates to a Farm Bill over a 10-year period is known as the “baseline funding”. This becomes very important in determining what the funding level is for each Title and the various programs in the Farm Bill. The current 2018 Farm Bill authorized $860 billion over ten years (2018-2027), with 76 percent going to nutrition, 9 percent to crop insurance, 7 percent each to commodity programs and conservation, and less than one percent to all other Titles. The initial “baseline funding for the 2023 Farm Bill proposes $1.3 trillion over ten years (2023-2032), with 84 percent for Nutrition, 6 percent for conservation, 5 percent for crop insurance, 4 percent for commodity programs, and less than one percent for the other Titles. Both the U.S. Senate and U.S. House Ag Committees held hearings on a new Farm Bill during 2022 and more hearings will likely be planned early in the new Congressional session in 2023. The Congressional leadership has been very committed with plans to have a new Farm Bill completed by September 30, 2023, with very little talk of an extension to the current Farm Bill. Ultimately, there will likely be a compromise reached, and a new 5-year Farm Bill will be passed; however, given the political division that currently exists in Congress, a one-year extension of the current Farm Bill is certainly a possibility. For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Sr. Vice President, MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. (Phone - (507) 381-7960) E-mail - [email protected]) Web Site - http://www.minnstarbank.com/
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At the end of every year, various publications, websites, etc. have their “Top 10” or “Top 5” list for that year. In this issue of “FOCUS ON AG”, I am high-lighting my “Top 5 Ag Topics” for 2022, based on issues that were discussed in the columns throughout the year. Following are my “Top 5 Ag Topics” for 2022:
1. Strong U.S. Net Farm Income levels continue in 2022 Based on the data in the latest “2022 Farm Income Forecast” that was released by the USDA EconomicResearch Service (ERS) in early December, U.S. net farm income is expected to increase by $19.5 billion or 12.8 percent above 2021 levels, which followed an increase of over 40 percent in 2021 as com-pared to 2020 net farm income levels. The estimated 2022 net farm income is now estimated at $160.5 billion. In the recent farm income report, USDA estimated the total U.S. net cash income for 2022 at $187.9 billion, which is an increase of $39.7 billion or 26.7 percent from a year earlier. When adjusted for inflation, the 2022 net farm income is the highest since 1973, while net cash income would be at the highest level since USDA began tracking this data in 1929. Net cash income includes cash receipts from all farm-related income, including government payments, minus cash expenses for the year. Net farm income is accrual-based 2020 net farm income levels. The estimated 2022 net farm income is now estimated at $160.5 billion. In the recent farm income report, USDA estimated the total U.S. net cash income for 2022 at $187.9 billion, which is an increase of $39.7 billion or 26.7 percent from a year earlier. Ehen adjusted for inflation, the 2022 net farm income is the highest since 1973, while net cash income would be at the highest level since USDA began tracking this data in 1929. Net cash income includes cash receipts from all farm-related income, including government payments, minus cash expenses for the year. Net farm income is accrual-based, which includes income adjustments for changes in inventories, depreciation, and rental income. The very strong improvement in U.S. farm income levels that began in 2021 and continued through 2022 are considerably higher than farm income levels from 2014-2020. The improvement in 2021 and 2022 net farm income has largely been driven by continued strong commodity prices for crops and livestock, strong export markets, and better than expected crop yields in some areas. By comparison, the positive U.S. net farm income levels in 2019 and 2020 were largely driven by very high levels of government farm program payments, which included payments for trade-disruption and COVID-related payments, as well as some traditional farm program payments and disaster payments. 2. Inflation and rapidly increasing farm input costs. Almost every input cost for crop and livestock production increased in 2022 compared to expense levels in 2021, and expenses are likely to increase again in 2023. Much of the focus has been in higher fertilizer costs for corn, which doubled for many producers in 2022, compared to aver-age 2021 fertilizer costs. Input costs in 2022 were also significantly higher for crop chemicals, diesel fuel, propane, repairs, custom work, and la-bor. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank increased the prime interest rate from 3.25 percent at the beginning of 2022 to 7.5 percent by year-end in December, which will likely result in significantly higher interest costs for many farm operators in 2023. The cost of farm equipment and other capital improvements has also increased substantially in 2022 from a year earlier, which will likely increase depreciation and other overhead costs in the coming years. The combination of significantly higher crop input costs, along with increasing land rental rates, will likely put more pressure on crop breakeven price levels for 2023. Using typical crop input expenses, other direct costs, average overhead expenses, together with a land rental rate of $275 per acre and a targeted return to the farm operator of $50 per acre, the break-even price on cash rented acres to cover direct and overhead expenses for corn in the Upper Midwest for 2023 will likely be around $5.50 to $6.00 per bushel. This compares to corn break-even levels of $5.00 to $5.25 per bushel in 2022 and $3.75 to $4.00 per bushel in 2021. The break-even soybean price to cover the cost of production and $275 per acre land rent in 2023 will likely be about $12.00 to $13.00 per bushel, which compares to soybean break-even levels of $11.00-$11.50 per bushel in 2022 and $9.00-$9.50 per acre in 2021. 3. Strong grain prices continue in 2022 As in most years, where farmers were positioned in the grain market and the grain marketing decisions that were made by farm operators will have a big impact on the profit levels for their crop enterprise in 2022. Both corn and soybean markets have remained quite strong throughout most of 2022, due to increased demand both for domestic uses and for export markets, especially to China. The “basis” level between Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) prices and local corn and soybean prices has remained extremely tight in many areas of the Upper Midwest due to strong local demand and tight grain supplies, which has also enhanced grain marketing opportunities during the year. “New crop” cash corn price bids in Southern Minnesota were near $5.25 per bushel early in 2022, before rising to near $7.00 per bushel by April and staying above $6.00 per bushel for the remainder of the year. The cash corn price was above $6.50 per bushel in mid-December. The 2022 “new crop” cash soybean bids in Southern Minnesota started the year at $12.50-$12.80 per bushel and rose to near $15.00 per bushel by late April, before finishing the year in the $13-$14 per bushel range from July to December. The cash soybean prices were above $14.25 per bushel in mid-December at many locations. USDA is currently estimating the average farm prices for the 2022-23 marketing year, which ends on September 30, 2023, at $6.70 per bushel for corn and $14.00 per bushel for soybeans. The current forward price bids being offered in many areas for the Fall of 2023 are near $5.50 per bushel for corn and $13.25 per bushel for soybeans. 4. Variable crop yields across the Midwest Some crop farmers in Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa would categorize 2022 crop yields as “better than expected”. Following a somewhat late planting season, favorable growing conditions for both corn and soybeans allowed crops in many areas to make rapid progress. Weather conditions turned very hot and dry from late May through July. Many portions of this region only received 50-75 percent of the normal growing season precipitation from May 1 through September 30, and much of that came in mid-August or later. However, the combination, of excellent planting conditions, no-drown-out loss, timely rainfall, and above normal growing degree units resulted in average to above average corn and soybean yields for the year in some portions of the region. On the other hand, “mother nature” was not kind to many producers in Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and Western Iowa, as well as in portions of Western Minnesota, as producers in those areas experienced some of the worst drought conditions since 2012, and in some cases the worst drought since 1988. The drought in these areas resulted in corn and soybean yields that were 20-30 percent or more below APH yields. The drought also resulted in very low hay and pasture production, which lead to many cow/calf producers in the region being forced to liquidate a portion of their beef herd. 5. Sharp increases in land values Iowa State University recently released the “2022 Farmland Survey” results, which showed that average farmland values in Iowa increased by 17 percent in 2022 as compared to 2021 farmland value. The rather large percentage increase in annual land values this year came one year after a 29 percent increase in 2021, which was the second highest on record, trailing only a 32.5 percent increase in 2013. The 2022 average farmland value in Iowa was $11,411 per acre, compared to $9,751 in 2021 and $7,559 per acre in 2020. The 2022 average is at the highest nominal land value since Iowa State began surveying land values in 1941. Recent U.S. Federal Reserve data reported year-over-year average annual land value increases in the third quarter of 2022 at 30 percent in North Dakota, 27 percent in Kansas, 24 percent in Minnesota, 22 percent in Iowa, 20 percent in Nebraska and Illinois, 13 percent in South Dakota, and 12 percent in Wisconsin. The higher land values were largely driven by high farm profit levels in 2021 and 2022.
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Record grain prices, high farm profit levels, rapid increases in land values, large capital purchases on the farm, and strong optimism about the future of the farm economy. Sound familiar …… that was the situation in the late 1970’s; however, it also very similar to current farm economic situation in many areas of the United States. Of course, what followed in the 1980’s was the worst agriculture economy in the U.S since the Great Depression of the 1930’s, which resulted to extreme financial and mental stress for a large number of farm families, as well as leading to many forced farm sales and foreclosures. The farm stress of the 1980’s was caused by rapidly rising inflation and farm input costs, reduced commodity prices and poor farm profit levels, greatly reduced land values, and high interest rates, as well as by not adjusting to a changing farm economy.
Following are some factors to consider with today’s farm economy: · Nearby soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have traded above $12.00 per bushel since the beginning of 2021 and above $14.00 per bushel for much of 2022, reaching a high of $16.00-$17.00 per bushel in the Spring of 2022. Soybean futures prices were below $9.00 per bushel as recently as the first half of 2020. The last time we had an extended period of high CBOT soybean futures prices of $13 to $16 per bushel was from 2011 through the first half of 2014, reaching a high of $17.68 per bushel in September of 2012. By the end of 2015, soybean futures prices had retreated to below $9.00 per bushel. · Similarly, nearby CBOT corn futures have traded above $6.00 per bushel for most of 2022, which compares to $3.25-$3.50 per bushel in the first half of 2020. Similar to soybeans, the last extended period of strong corn prices was from 2011 through the first half of 2013, when CBOT nearby corn futures price also traded above $6.00 per bushel most of the time, reaching a high of over $8.00 per bushel in the fall of the drought year of 2012. By mid-year of 2014, corn futures prices had dropped below $4.00 per bushel. · According to the most recent USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Income Forecast on December 1, 2022, “net farm income” in the U.S. for 2022 is projected at $160.5 billion, which would be an increase of 12.8 percent or $19.5 billion from the $140.5 billion level in 2021. In the six previous years (2015-2020), the U.S. net farm income was below $100 billion. · The last period of very strong net farm income levels in the U.S, occurred from 2011 to 2013. The average annual U.S. net farm income over the past two decades (2002-2021) was $104 billion per year. The very strong U.S. farm income levels in the past two years has been driven by strong commodity prices, improved livestock profitability, and excellent export levels of farm products to China and other countries. · According to the latest ERS estimates, total farm expenditures in the U.S. are expected to increase by $69.9 billion or 18.8 percent, as compared to a year earlier, with fertilizer expenses leading the way with at a 47 percent increase year-over-year. The ERS also projects increased input costs for crop chemicals, diesel fuel, repairs, and farm labor, as well as livestock expenses. Farm input costs will likely be even higher in 2023. · The U.S. Federal Reserve has increased the prime interest rate to 7 percent in early November, with the potential for another increase before the end of the year, which compares to a rate of 3.25 percent in the first few months of 2022. Farm operators that are paying 4 percent interest for a one-year operating loan in 2022 could likely be paying an interest rate of 8 to 9 percent for 2023. For farmers that rely on short-term credit during the year, this could easily add $15,000 to $25,000 to their farm operating costs in 2023. · According to the USDA Land Value Summary Report, released in August of 2022, farmland values in the U.S. in 2022 averaged a record $3,800 per acre, which was an annual increase of 12 percent from mid-year of 2021. The $420 per acre increase nationally from 2021 to 2022 was the largest year-over-year increase ever recorded. The highest annual percentage increases in farmland values from 2021 to 2022 were 25 percent in Kansas, 21 percent in both Iowa and Nebraska, 19 percent in South Dakota, and 17 percent in Minnesota. Land values in many of those areas have continued to increase in recent months. Many farmers and others in the agriculture industry remain very “bullish” on the future profitability in production agriculture and the overall U.S. agriculture economy. Until recently, it has been hard to find many people talking about a potential downturn in the agriculture economy anytime soon. Usually, when everyone is thinking one direction is when things change, and sometimes those changes can occur quite rapidly. In 1980, following some very robust farm income years, the U.S. Government implemented a grain embargo that caused a rapid decline in grain exports and resulted in much lower grain prices. This rapid drop in grain prices, along with lower farm profits, and much higher interest rates, led to the farm crisis of the 1980’s. While economic conditions in the U.S. today are much different than in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, there are some “yellow caution flags” to think about with today’s agriculture economy: · The cost of production for corn and soybeans, including feed, fertilizer, chemicals, seed, fuel, and other expenses is expected to increase again for 2023 and will be nearly double the cost of production a few years ago. The increased cost of production, combined with the increased land rental rates and higher interest rates means that the break-even price in 2023 for corn production for many farm operators in the Midwest will likely be $5.50 to $6.00 per bushel for corn, and over $12.00 per bushel for soybeans, after being below $4.00 per bushel for corn and below $9.00 per bushel for soybeans as recently as 2020. · If the high inflation rates continue into 2023 and beyond, it could impact consumer buying habits for some food items, such as high-end meat and dairy products, which could greatly affect livestock profit margins. · There is growing concern regarding the future level on ag exports, given the continuing Russian war in Ukraine, growing U.S. trade tensions with China, and other worldwide political issues. · The renewable fuel industry is kind of at a crossroads …… there is optimism surrounding the potential for higher blends of ethanol, increased production of renewable biodiesel, and development of sustainable aviation fuel. On the other hand, the “green energy” movement toward a rapid increase in electric vehicles and less use of traditional fuels could lower future demand for ethanol and traditional soybean diesel. · Land values dropped by 40 to 60 percent in many areas during the 1980’s following their peak values in the late 1970’s. More recently, Iowa average farmland values dropped by 16 percent from 2014 to 2018 after the last peak in land values in 2013. Many analysts expect land values to plateau and possibly decline again in the coming years beyond 2023, following the current rapid rise in land values in 2021 and 2022. · In 2020, we experienced the serious economic impact that a major human disease pandemic such as COVID can cause on the U.S. and worldwide economy, including the ag economy, How well are we prepare to withstand future pandemics, terrorist attacks, and other factors beyond a farmers control that could impact the financial well-being of individual farm businesses and the overall U.S. ag economy ? · During recent events such as COVID, the trade war with China, and natural disasters, the Federal government has provided significant financial aide to farm operators to help offset reduced income. Many analysts wonder if the next Farm Bill and other government programs will offer that continued strong financial “safety net” for farm operators in the future. The overall farm economy is quite strong right now and will likely remain at positive levels into 2023; however, as was pointed out there are some reasons to be concerned about farm profit levels in the future. One of the best hedges for farm operators against reduced farm profits in the coming years is to keep the “current position” (cash available) segment of the farm business strong. It may be better to use current excess cash revenues from the farm operation to pay down short-term farm operating debt, rather than using the cash to purchase expensive land and other capital assets, or for excessive spending for non-farm expenditures. Farmers need to continue to look for ways to optimize production costs and to “fine-tune” grain and livestock marketing plans based on the “cost of production” in their farm operation. Even though we could face “strong headwinds” in the coming years, we do not necessarily need to repeat the ag financial crisis of the 1980’s.
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Many farm operators provide some type of custom work or use of farm machinery to other farmers during the growing season, and payment is usually made following the completion of the harvest season. Sometimes, it can be difficult to arrive a fair custom rate for the certain farming practices, or for the use of various pieces of machinery. This could be the case in a year such as 2022, when the cost of machinery operation for diesel fuel, repairs, and labor have increased substantially from the beginning of the year until year-end.
Due to the high cost of investment in farm machinery, an ever-increasing number of farm operators are hiring other farm operators to provide some or all of the needed machinery resources for their farm operation. This is especially true with new and younger farm operators, as well as with children that decide to start farming with their parents. In addition, some land investors are choosing to operate a farm themselves rather than cash renting the land another farm operator, and thus they are hiring a farm operator under a custom farming agreement. One of the best resources for average custom rates is the annual “Iowa Farm Custom Rate Survey” that is coordinated and analyzed by Iowa State University. Each year in January, custom operators and farm managers are sampled regarding the expected farm custom rates for various farm operations. The custom rate summary, which is usually released in late February, lists the average custom rate, as well as a range in custom rates, for various tillage, planting, fertilizer and chemical application, grain harvesting, and forage harvesting functions on the farm. The Iowa Custom Rate Survey, which also includes many miscellaneous farming practices and a formula for calculating rental rates. is probably the most widely used custom rate information that is available in the Upper Midwest. The complete 2022 “Iowa Farm Custom Rate Survey” for all farming practices is available on-line at the following Iowa State University web site: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a3-10.html The average custom rates for farm operations in most areas of the Upper Midwest tend to be very close to the average Iowa custom rates. All listed custom rates in the Iowa survey results include fuel and labor, unless listed as rental rates or otherwise specified. These average rates are only meant to be a guide for custom rates, as actual custom rates charged may vary depending on increases in fuel costs, availability of custom operators, timeliness, field size, etc. In a year such as 2022 that has featured significant increases in operation costs for farm machinery, it may be justified and necessary to adjust some of those custom rates above the median or average rates. Based on the Iowa State data, average custom rates for tillage, planting, and harvest operations in 2022 were expected to increase by about 7 percent, compared to the rates for similar operations in 2021. The cost for new and used machinery increased rapidly in the past 12 months, which together with increasing fuel costs and higher labor charges, accounts for the increases in 2022 custom rates. It should be noted that many of these factors have continued to increase during 2022, which may result in custom operators increasing their final custom rates to even higher levels by year-end to fully cover the increasing expenses for custom operations. Good communications between the custom operators and farmer are very important in finalizing custom rates. All listed custom rates in the Iowa Survey results include fuel, labor, repairs, depreciation, insurance, and interest, unless listed as rental rates or otherwise specified. The average price for diesel fuel in the survey was assumed to be $3.33 per gallon; however current prices for diesel fuel are considerably higher than that price. A fuel price increase of $.50 per gallon would cause most custom rates to increase by approximately five percent. These average rates are only meant to be a guide for custom rates, as actual custom rates charged may vary depending on continued increase in fuel costs, availability of custom operators, timeliness, field size, etc. and could be adjusted later in the year due to changes in economic factors. Custom Farming Agreements Some farm operators hire custom work for specific farm operations with another farm operator, such as planting or combining, while other operators hire the typical crop field work through a custom farming agreement. The Iowa State Custom Rate Survey includes the average custom farming rates for corn, soybeans, and small grain. Custom farming agreements usually include tillage, planting, some weed control, harvesting, and delivering grain to a specified location. Usually, any other additional or necessary farm practices that are performed during the year are paid outside of the custom farming agreement. Many farm operators negotiate these types of custom farming arrangements in the Spring of the year, while others wait until harvest is completed. Although the concept of a custom farming agreement seems simple, close communication between the custom operator and the landowner is essential to a solid plan. It is recommended that a custom farming agreement include a written contract that specifies the typical cropping practices to be performed and the amount of payment per acre to be paid to the custom operator by the landowner, and all other pertinent details for the custom farming arrangement. The custom farming rates for corn and soybean production were expected to increase by about 1.5 percent compared to a year earlier; however, similar to the other custom rates, larger increases may be justified to cover increased costs of fuel, labor, etc. For more details on custom farming agreements, please refer to the Iowa State University “Ag Decision Maker” Web Site at: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/ Calculating Farm Machinery Costs The University of Minnesota periodically releases a publication titled: “Machinery Cost Estimates”, which was last updated in April of 2022. This summary looks at the use-related (operating) cost of farm machinery, as well as the overhead (ownership) costs of the machinery. The use-related expenses include fuel, repairs and maintenance, labor, and depreciation. Overhead costs include interest, insurance, and housing, which are calculated based on pre-set formulas. This publication can help serve as a good guide to help farm operators estimate their “true cost” of farm machinery ownership. The U of M machinery cost publication and other resources available on the costs of farm machinery ownership are available at: https://wlazarus.cfans.umn.edu/william-f-lazarus-farm-machinery-management. Another good resource for estimating the costs of farm machinery ownership is a publication from Iowa State University titled: “Estimating Farm Machinery Costs”, which includes a worksheet to calculate farm machinery costs. This publication is available at: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a3-29.pdf Check Grain Bins Most corn and soybean producers across the Midwest completed the 2022 harvest season quite early and may now need to pay close attention to grain that is stored in on-farm grain bins for potential storage problems. Due to deferred grain sales and the potential for higher corn and soybean prices in the coming months, a large amount of corn and soybeans is likely being stored on the farm following harvest in 2022. Most of the crop was placed into grain bins at a variety of outside temperatures, some grain at fairly warm temperatures and other grain at much cooler temperatures. This grain temperature difference, along with fluctuations in recent outside temperatures, can result in wide temperature variations in the final grain temperature within grain bins. This can lead to moisture migration in the bin, which could potentially result in significant grain spoilage if the situation is not properly addressed. There have already been reports of grain going out of condition in some areas. Farm operators should run aeration fans periodically to equalize the grain bin temperatures, which will help prevent this situation from occurring. It is also very important to check grain bins on a regular basis for any potential storage issues, and to address those issues promptly. Otherwise, there can be considerable damage to grain that is in storage, which can result in a significant financial loss to the farm operator.
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MINOR CHANGES IN NOVEMBER USDA REPORTS11/16/2022 The monthly USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was released on November 9, which may have some impact corn and soybean markets in the coming months. The WASDE Report made minor adjustments to projected 2022-23 U.S. corn and soybean carryover estimates at the end of the current marketing year on August 31, 2023, as compared to estimates last month. The biggest surprise to the grain markets was a slight increase in the estimated corn and soybean production levels for 2022 compared to a month earlier, which resulted in slightly higher carryout levels for both corn and soybeans in the November WASDE Report.
Most grain marketing analysts viewed the latest USDA reports as somewhat “bullish” for future corn prices and “neutral” for soybean prices. December corn futures closed at $6.64 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) following the November 9 report, which compares to a price of $6.96 per bushel following the WASDE report on September 12 and to $5.55 per bushel following the November WASDE report in 2021. CBOT November soybean futures closed at $14.52 per bushel following the latest WASDE report, which was below the $14.88 per bushel price following the September report and compares to $11.38 per bushel following the WASDE report in November of 2021. The 2022 national average corn yield is now estimated at the record level of 172.3 bushels per acre, which was increased from 171.9 in October. The 2022 harvested corn acreage in the U.S. was maintained 80.8 million acres, resulting in a total estimated 2022 corn production of 13.93 billion bushels. This compares to total U.S. corn production levels of near 15.1 billion bushels in 2021, 14.1 billion bushels in 2020 and to 13.6 billion bushels in 2019. Total corn usage for the 2022-23 year is now estimated at just over 14.175 billion bushels, which would be down from 14.956 billion bushels in the 2021-22 marketing year. Corn export levels and the amount of corn used for both feed and ethanol production during the current marketing year, which ends on August 31, 2023, were all reduced from corn usage levels during the 2021-22 marketing year. USDA is now estimating 2022-2022 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.182 billion bushels, which was 10 million bushels above the October estimate. This compares to carryout levels of 1.338 billion bushels in 2021-22, 1.24 billion bushels in 2020-21, and 1.99 billion bushels for 2019-20. Based on current estimates, the U.S. corn carryout to use ratio would be at 8.3 percent for 2022-23, which compares to 9.2 percent for 2021-22, 8.3 percent in 2020-21, and 14.4 percent in 2019-20. The continued tighter corn stocks could result in the potential for some short-term rallies in the cash corn market and continued tight basis levels at many locations in the coming months. The 2022-23 U.S. soybean ending stocks in the recent WASDE Report were estimated at 220 million bushels, which was an increase of 20 million bushels compared to the October USDA report. The projected soybean ending stocks compare to 274 million bushels in 2021-22 and 256 million bushels in 2020-21; however, the projected 2022-23 carryout level is well below the ending stocks of 523 million bushels in 2019-20 and 913 million bushels in 2018-19. The soybean stocks-to-use ratio for 2022-23 is estimated at 5 percent, which is down from down from 6.1 percent on 2021-22 and well below levels of 11.5 percent in 2019-20 and 23 percent for 2018-19. Total U.S. soybean production for 2022 was estimated at just under 4.346 billion bushels in the November report, which was increased by 33 million bushels from the October estimate and was slightly higher than the average grain trade projection. Total soybean demand for 2022-23 is projected at 4.414 billion bushels, which is down slightly from 4.465 billion bushels in 2021-22. The anticipated reduction in U.S. soybean demand in the coming year is primarily due to a decrease in the expected soybean export levels in 2022-23. The fact that soybean ending stocks remain fairly tight may offer some opportunities for short-term rallies for farm-level soybean prices in the coming months, especially if there are any weather-related production issues in South America. Based on the November WASDE report, USDA is currently estimating the U.S average on-farm cash corn price for the 2022-2023 marketing year at $6.80 per bushel, which was unchanged from the October report. The USDA price estimates are the expected average farm-level prices for the 2022 crop year from September 1, 2022, to August 31, 2023; however, they do not represent estimated prices for either the 2022 or 2023 calendar year. The projected USDA average corn price of $6.80 per bushel would be the highest since 2012-13 following the 2012 drought. The 2022-23 estimated corn price compares to recent national average corn prices of $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, $3.56 per bushel for 2019-20, and $3.61 per bushel for 2018-19. USDA maintained the projected U.S. average farm-level soybean price for the 2022-2023 marketing year at $14.00 per bushel, which was also the same as the October estimate. The projected national average soybean price would be the highest in the past decade. The 2022-23 projected national average soybean price compares to prices $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21, $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20, $8.48 per bushel for 2018-19, and $9.35 per bushel for 2017-18. USDA 2022 Corn and Soybean Yield Projections Below 2021 Yields Based on the USDA Crop Production Report released on November 9, the projected U.S. average corn yield for 2022 will be 172.3 bushels per acre which was a decrease from the record U.S. corn yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2021. This compares to other recent U.S. corn yields of 171.4 bushels per acre in 2020, 167.5 bushels per acre in 2019, and 176.4 bushels per acre in 2018. The projected 2022 U.S. harvested corn acreage is 80.8 million acres is a decrease of 5.3 percent from 85.3 million acres that were harvested last year. The November USDA Report increased the projected 2022 corn yields from the October report in Illinois by 5 bushels per acre, Indiana by 4 bushels, Iowa and North Dakota by 2 bushels per acre, and Minnesota by 1 bushel per acre. The latest USDA report left the projected corn yield unchanged from a month earlier in Wisconsin, while reducing estimated yield levels in Nebraska and South Dakota by 4 and 5 bushel per acre respectively. Minnesota is now projected to have a statewide average corn yield of 191 bushels per acre in 2022 compared to 177 bushels per acre in 2021, with Iowa are at 202 bushels per acre in 2022 compared to 204 bushels per acre in 2021. Other projected 2022 State average corn yields are Illinois at 215 bushels per acre, Indiana at 191 bushels per acre, Ohio at 186 bushels per acre, North Dakota at 143 bushels per acre, and Wisconsin at 182 bushels per acre. The drought-stricken States of Nebraska and South Dakota are projected at 168 and 125 bushels per acre respectively. USDA is estimating the 2022 U.S. soybean yield at 50.2 bushels per acre, which is an increase of 0.4 bushels from the October estimate. The projected 2022 national average soybean yield compares to 51.7 bushels per acre in 2021, 51 bushels per acre in 2020, 47.4 bushels per acre in 2019, 50.6 bushels per acre in 2018, the record U.S. soybean yield of 52.0 bushels per acre in 2016. The 2022 harvested soybean acreage is projected at 86.6 million acres, which up slightly from the 2021 U.S. soybean acreage of 86.3 million acres; however, the 2022 acreage is well above the U.S. soybean harvested acreage of 82.6 million acres in 2020 and 74.9 million acres in 2019. USDA is estimating the 2022 Minnesota soybean yield at 50 bushels per acre, which is up from 47 bushels per acre in 2021, while Iowa is projected at 59 bushels per acre in 2022, compared to a record 63 bushels per acre in 2021. Other States with strong soybean yields for 2022 include Illinois at 64 bushels per acre, Indiana at 59 bushels per acre, Ohio at 55 bushels per acre, Wisconsin at 54 bushels per acre, and North Dakota at 36 bushels per acre. The 2022 statewide yield estimate in drought-stricken Nebraska is projected at 50 bushels per acre, which compares to 63 bushels per acre in 2021, while the South Dakota yield is estimated at 39 bushels per acre in 2022, compared to 40 bushels per acre in 2021.
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On any given day, farm operators and others can get grain price quotes from the CME Group, also known as the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), in “real-time” on their computer or I-phone. Almost as quickly, they can get current and future corn and soybean market price quotes from local grain elevators, ethanol plants, and processing plants. The difference between the local grain price and the CBOT price is known as “basis”. Understanding how basis works and the seasonal trends associated with basis can be an important factor in making corn and soybean marketing decisions.
More specifically, “basis” is the difference between the local grain price quote on a specific date and the CBOT price for the corresponding futures contract month. Local harvest price quotes for corn and soybeans would typically correspond to the December CBOT corn futures price and the November CBOT soybean futures price. By comparison, storing the corn or soybeans after harvest and selling the grain via a forward contract in June or early July the following Summer would have the basis level correspond to the July CBOT corn or soybean futures. A “narrow” or “tighter” basis means that the local corn or soybean price is getting closer or above the corresponding CBOT price, while a “wide” or “widening” basis reflects local grain prices that have a greater margin below the CBOT prices. In many years up until recently, farmers in the Upper Midwest dealt with “negative” basis levels, which means than local corn and soybean prices are lower than the corresponding CBOT prices. Areas near the Mississippi River ports or in the Southern U.S more typically have “positive” basis levels, where local grain prices are higher than CBOT prices. However, there have been several areas of the Upper Midwest that have had “positive” basis levels for corn and soybeans at certain times during 2021 and 2022. While the definition of “basis” may seem quite simple, the dynamics of understanding basis can be quite complex. Basis is variable at different locations and can vary throughout the year, or suddenly be adjusted due to changing dynamics in grain market fundamentals. Following are the main factors that affect basis and can lead to changes in basis levels:
There is currently a wide range in harvest-time corn basis levels the Midwest, depending on 2022 corn yields and demand for corn usage. For example, in portions on Nebraska and Kansas that were impacted by the drought in 2022, the early November corn basis level is +$.50 to +$1.50 above the nearby CBOT December corn futures price, which is a much different pattern than normal. By comparison, corn basis levels in areas of Southern Illinois are ($.50) to ($1.00) per bushel below December CBOT price, which is a much wider basis level than normal, resulting from reduced barge traffic on the lower Mississippi River due to low water levels. The national average corn basis level on November 3 was +$.05 per bushel above the CBOT December futures price. The corn basis level on November 3 in Southern Minnesota ranged from about ($.25) per bushel under the CBOT December futures price to +$.15 above the CBOT price. Soybean basis levels in Southern Minnesota on November 3 generally ranged from ($.15) under to +$.05 over the CBOT January futures price, with some soybean processing plants as high as +$.40 above the futures price. In the six years (2015-2020) prior to 2021, early November corn basis levels in Southern Minnesota had typically averaged ($.35) to ($.45) per bushel below the nearby CBOT futures price and soybean basis levels were ($.40) to ($.90) per bushel under futures prices. Currently, many farmers are quite “bullish” about grain market prices in 2023, meaning that they feel there is a good chance of corn and soybean prices rising in the coming months. The current basis levels for both crops in many areas are encouraging producers to sell their grain in the next few months, rather than waiting until next Summer to market the grain. Corn futures and cash prices are currently projected to stay fairly steady from now until July of 2023, meaning there is very little difference in the expected basis levels by next Summer. At soybean processing plants in Southern Minnesota, the soybean basis was +$.40 per bushel on November 3, compared to minus ($.15) per bushel in July of 2023, so even though the CBOT futures price for July is $.16 per bushel higher than the January price, the cash soybean bid for July is ($.39) per bushel lower than the current cash bid. There are several grain marketing tools available for farmers to utilize besides cash sales, including a variety of hedging, options and basis contracts, Typical hedging or options contracts lock in the CBOT futures price but not the cash price, meaning that there is still basis risk. For example, a “hedge-to-arrive” contract locks in a CBOT futures price but the basis is not finalized until the futures contract is cleared and the grain is sold. By comparison, a basis contract locks in the basis but keeps the final price open depending on changes in the corresponding CBOT futures price and actual cash price at the time of delivery. Depending on an individual’s willingness to assume some market risk, they could also sell the grain for cash to realize the advantage of the current basis levels and take a CBOT options or futures price position to keep some upside potential in the corn and soybean markets. Most grain marketing strategies, including storing unpriced grain in a bin on the farm, involve some level of price and/or basis risk. Understanding the dynamics of basis in corn and soybean market prices is a key element in analyzing the various types of grain marketing contracts that are available to farm operators. Iowa State University has some good information available on understanding basis and various grain marketing strategies. This information is available on the “Ag Decision Maker” website at: https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm
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As the 2022 harvest season is rapidly drawing to a close, many areas of the Corn Belt are now in a moderate to severe drought, with conditions worsening in the past couple of months. The latest “U.S. Drought Monitor” released on October 27 places all of Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Indiana, Kansas, and Missouri at some level of drought, as well as much of the major crop producing areas of Minnesota, Illinois and North Dakota. Currently, approximately 60 percent of the tillable crop acres in the U.S. are being impacted by some level of drought. The National Drought Mitigation Center, which produces the updated U.S. Drought Monitor on a weekly basis, indicated that current conditions are comparable to the Fall of 2012, when over 61 percent of the U.S. crop acres were impacted by some level of drought.
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly all of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas is now categorized to be in either the extreme drought (D3) or severe drought (D2) category, with a growing portion of that region in an exceptional drought (D4) category. There is a growing area of worsening drought in the Ohio River Valley and Southern Mississippi River basin area. Nearly the entire western two-thirds of the United States is listed in some level of drought at the end of October. Some Western States and Great Plains States have been dealing with drought conditions for two to three years. Areas that are in the extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) drought areas are more likely to incur significant crop loss and have extremely limited forage production. Based on the U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota on October 27, all areas of the State except the Arrowhead region and a small portion of North Central and Northwest Minnesota were categorized in some level of drought. Nearly the entire Southern half of the State was in the “moderate” to “severe” drought category, with a small portion of Southwest Minnesota and a larger area just west and south of the Twin Cities metro area in an “extreme” drought category. Back in mid-Summer of 2022, very few areas were listed in any type of drought category. Sometimes the “Drought Monitor” is somewhat misunderstood. It is meant to measure the overall long-term impacts of extended drought conditions, as compared to representing current crop conditions. This is why some areas that are listed in “moderate” or “severe” drought may still have had fairly good crop yields in 2022, even with below average rainfall, depending on the timeliness of the rainfall events during the growing season. Some portions of the Upper Midwest also benefitted from starting the 2022 growing season with average to above average levels of stored soil moisture, which has also helped maintain crop development through some very dry periods during the Summer months. The continued drought across the region is certainly a concern as we look forward to the 2023 growing season, with stored soil moisture levels across the Midwest at historically low levels in many locations. The post-harvest stored moisture levels at many reporting stations ranges from near zero to only a few inches in the top five feet of soil, compared to normal levels of six to seven inches of stored soil moisture in late October. Nearly 75 percent of the primary growing areas in the U.S. for winter wheat are in moderate, severe or extreme drought conditions, which is at the highest level in over twenty years. Winter wheat is seeded in the Fall and harvested the following Summer. Dry soil conditions in the Fall can result in poor germination and stunt the early growth of the winter wheat, which can result in yield reductions the following year. The intense drought conditions in some corn and soybean production areas can also lead to challenges with Fall fertilizer and manure applications, as well as making Fall tillage more difficult. Nitrogen fertilizer costs nearly three times as much as it did two years ago, so farmers need to carefully consider Fall soil conditions if they plan to apply anhydrous ammonia this Fall. Producers may also want to limit their Fall tillage or consider the use of cover crops to reduce the potential for wind erosion during the Winter months. According to precipitation data at the University of Minnesota Southwest Research Center at Lamberton, drought-like conditions have existed for the past 2-3 months. From June 1 to October 28, 2022, the Lamberton location had received only 6.57 inches of precipitation, which is 9.73 inches less than average, and represents only 40 percent of the normal rainfall amount during the Summer and Fall months in 2022. By comparison, the U of M Research Center at Waseca in South Central Minnesota received close to normal precipitation in June, July and August but has become quite dry in September and October. Waseca has received only 1.08 inches of precipitation in September and October, while Lamberton has received only .93 inches. Other two-month precipitation totals for September and October from the National Weather Service, included Wheaton at .47 inches and Windom at .62 inches, which were both the driest ever recorded, and New Ulm at .60 inches, the third driest in history. The warm, dry weather during late September and October has allowed the Fall harvest season to progress quite rapidly in most areas of the Upper Midwest. By the end of October, soybean harvest had been completed and corn harvest was about 80-90 percent completed across southern Minnesota. Overall, the “whole-field” corn and soybean yields across the Midwest were highly variable, even in the same county or township, depending on the amount and timeliness of rainfall events during the growing season. Some areas of Southern Minnesota and North Central Iowa had some of their best corn and soybean yields ever, while farmers in Nebraska, Western Iowa and portions of Southern south Dakota had greatly reduced crop yields due to the drought impacts in 2022. The good news for all producers regarding the 2022 corn harvest has been the low harvest moisture of the corn coming out of the field, and the high quality of the corn. Most of the corn being harvested in Southern Minnesota in the past few weeks has been at 15-18 percent moisture, meaning it can go directly to farm grain bins with very little or no additional drying, or can be hauled to grain purchasers with very little price dockage for excess kernel moisture. The rapid field dry down of the corn is saving most producers $30.00-$35.00 per acre in anticipated corn drying costs. Most of the corn being harvested in Southern Minnesota has had a test weight that is at or above the standard test weight for corn of 56 pounds per bushel, which also adds value to the corn. The fire danger throughout in many areas remains extremely high due to the very dry conditions and frequent windy days. These conditions can quickly ignite field and grass fires that can cause significant damage. Farm operators need to use extra caution with farm machinery, grain trucks and other vehicles in the very dry fields. They also need to make sure that fire extinguishers are working properly and take other necessary fire safety precautions. The general public must also take care not to accidentally ignite a fire near farm fields, or in other rural areas. The ongoing drought conditions in many regions are also highly visible with the extremely low levels of lakes, rivers, and streams. In some instances, areas that have suffered intense drought levels for two or three years could also be impacted by reduced ground water levels. Based on the weather data in Southern Minnesota, the Fall precipitation pattern in 2022 is very similar to the pattern in the fall of 2011. Of course, the Fall of 2011 was followed by the major drought in the Summer of 2012, which was quite intense in many areas of the Midwest and across the U.S. The Summer of 2012 was driest since 1988, another major drought year, and was the second hottest Summer on record, trailing only 1936. The 2012 drought caused nearly $30 billion in agricultural losses, resulting in a loss of approximately 25 percent of the U.S. corn and sorghum crops, as well as major impacts on hay and pasture production and large financial losses to U.S. beef producers. On the other hand, both 1976 and 1952 also had very dry conditions in the Fall in the Midwest; however, both years were followed by above normal precipitation and fairly good crop production in the following year. So, there is no certainty when it comes to predicting long-term weather patterns based on current conditions but there is certainly cause for some concern as we look ahead to the 2023 growing season.
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2022 CROP INSURANCE PAYMENT POTENTIAL10/26/2022 Crop producers in Nebraska, South Dakota, Western Iowa, portions of Minnesota, and other States that were impacted by lack of rainfall and varying degrees of drought conditions during the 2022 growing season may have final corn and soybean yields that are well below their APH crop yields. Other areas of the Upper Midwest may have also been impacted by severe storms that caused some yield reductions. Farmers in any of these areas could potentially realize some 2022 crop insurance indemnity payments, due to the reduced yields this year. A yield reduction well below APH yields will be necessary in order to receive any 2022 crop insurance payment for corn, due to the final corn harvest price likely to be higher than the Spring base price. This situation for soybeans will be somewhat different the harvest price will be below the Spring base price.
The Federal crop insurance harvest prices for corn and soybeans are based on the average Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) price for December corn futures and November soybean futures, during the month of October, with the harvest prices being finalized by the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) on November 1. The Spring base prices for corn and soybeans are based on the average CBOT prices for December corn futures and November soybean futures during the month of February. The final harvest prices will be used to calculate the value of the 2022 harvested crops for all revenue protection (RP) crop insurance policies, as well as to potentially determine the revenue guarantee for the RP policies that include harvest price protection if the harvest price is higher than the base price; otherwise, the base price will be used to determine revenue guarantees for RP policies. The harvest price for corn will be higher than the base price for corn RP policies in 2022, so the harvest price will be used for crop insurance guarantee calculations on RP policies this year. The Spring base price for corn will use for 2022 guarantee calculations for all yield protection policies (YP) and revenue protection with harvest price protection (RPE). The situation will be different for soybeans, with the harvest price being lower than the base price and the base price being used for all RP calculations in 2022. Farm operators with final corn yields that are within 15 percent of their 2022 crop insurance actual production history (APH) crop yields will likely not receive any crop insurance indemnity payments; however, that situation will be different for soybeans. The estimated 2022 harvest prices as of 10-24-22 were $6.79 per bushel for corn, compared to a base (Spring) price of $5.90 per bushel, and $13.79 per bushel for soybeans, compared to a base price of $14.33 per bushel. The base price will be used to calculate and crop insurance indemnity payments on farms insured by yield only YP policies and on RPE policies for both corn and soybeans, as well as on RP policies for soybeans in 2022. The harvest price will be used to determine the revenue guarantee for all corn RP policies, but not on RPE policies that include the harvest price exclusion. The harvest price will also be used to calculate the final revenue amount for all RP and RPE policies for both corn and soybeans. Optional Units versus Enterprise Units Farm operators in areas with variable yield losses on different farm units that chose “optional units” for their 2022 crop insurance coverage rather than “enterprise units” may be in a more favorable position to collect potential indemnity payments on this year’s crop losses. “Enterprise units” combine all acres of a crop in a given county into one crop insurance unit, as compared to “optional units”, which allow producers to insure crops separately in each township section. In recent years, a high percentage of crop producers have opted for “enterprise units”, due to substantially lower crop insurance premium levels. Crop losses in many areas in 2022 were highly variable from farm-to-farm within the same county and township, which would favor the “optional units” for collecting crop insurance indemnity payments this year. RP Crop Insurance Calculations for Corn and Soybeans in 2022 The 2022 crop insurance calculations for RP insurance policies with harvest price protection will likely function differently for corn and soybeans. Here are the details for 2022 RP calculations:
The Type of Insurance Coverage will affect Potential Corn Indemnity Payments The level of crop insurance coverage and having RP insurance policies, with harvest price protection, can be a big factor in determining the amount of insurance indemnity payment that is received for crop yield reductions. Most corn and soybean producers in the Upper Midwest are carrying 75%, 80%, or 85% RP insurance coverage in 2022; however, there are some producers that utilized YP (yield only) or RPE (harvest price exclusion) policies in order to reduce crop insurance premiums. There could be a big difference in the potential final results of the various insurance policies for corn in 2022, due to the type of insurance policy, the level of insurance coverage, and the impact of the harvest price. To receive a copy of an information sheet and calculation worksheet titled: “2022 Crop Insurance Payment Potential”, send an e-mail to: [email protected] 2022 Corn and Soybean Crop Insurance Summary There will be considerable variation in potential crop insurance indemnity payments across the Midwest in 2022, even within the same county or township. Some producers also carried enhanced private insurance coverage levels (90% or 95%), had separate wind or hail insurance endorsements, or carried additional area insurance coverage (SCO or ECO), any of which could affect final potential insurance indemnity payments on the 2022 corn and soybean crop. Producers that had crop yield losses in 2022, with the potential for crop insurance indemnity payments, should contact their insurance agent and properly document yield losses. A reputable crop insurance agent is the best source of information to make estimates for potential 2022 crop insurance indemnity payments or to find out about documentation requirements for crop insurance losses, as well as to evaluate future crop insurance options. Details on various crop insurance policies can be found on the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) website at: https://www.rma.usda.gov/.
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USDA DECREASES CORN ENDING STOCKS10/19/2022 The monthly USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report that was released on October 12 will likely impact corn and soybean markets in the coming months. The WASDE Report decreased the expected U.S. corn ending stocks by the end of the 2022-23 marketing year, as compared to the September estimate. The projected soybean ending stocks for 2022-23 in the latest WASDE report remained the same as a month earlier.
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